Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 193.585302 231.080516 276.190299 335.167076 411.301114 507.770542 6.417271e+02
2025-09-07 156.830863 204.282845 268.448395 364.253178 508.645327 727.085009 1.101901e+03
2025-09-14 128.724427 177.785613 249.677118 367.819481 568.221390 918.521347 1.643673e+03
2025-09-21 111.968322 162.012152 240.272907 379.677146 642.040383 1166.597147 2.477962e+03
2025-09-28 97.357937 145.933053 225.798283 377.456893 688.409708 1386.896868 3.469685e+03
2025-10-05 91.538102 142.432326 230.730991 410.668618 817.618126 1869.439579 5.819876e+03
2025-10-12 85.804689 137.850246 232.458234 437.788763 946.338997 2454.314632 9.719272e+03
2025-10-19 80.131970 132.310643 231.073324 457.755562 1068.110438 3135.956974 1.616086e+04
2025-10-26 74.464262 125.835515 226.490968 469.097335 1173.465628 3881.772440 2.654995e+04
2025-11-02 68.881184 118.686477 219.172642 471.807673 1256.021075 4648.450174 4.286109e+04
2025-11-09 62.966032 110.111508 207.389834 460.125305 1287.609163 5235.910098 6.386847e+04
2025-11-16 57.852433 102.520617 196.572781 448.373625 1314.839200 5861.182790 9.692715e+04
2025-11-23 53.052237 95.221285 185.767081 435.409745 1338.177142 6565.422158 1.552870e+05
2025-11-30 52.067823 95.686648 192.829799 476.026324 1604.464696 9618.988671 5.785528e+05
2025-12-07 49.101569 91.581922 188.402585 480.998837 1724.700912 11943.065497 1.791529e+06
2025-12-14 47.024999 89.153613 187.671445 497.734835 1918.260802 15892.038919 1.317367e+07
2025-12-21 44.228161 84.815442 181.462244 494.591281 2010.188887 19167.656105 1.959787e+08
2025-12-28 43.780575 85.712561 188.911891 541.755312 2438.963496 31201.645167 NaN
2026-01-04 42.908133 85.518915 193.449236 580.565475 2874.941910 49962.760127 NaN
2026-01-11 41.683865 84.348547 195.108816 609.302980 3290.037851 78070.979073 NaN
2026-01-18 40.142349 82.243257 193.778610 625.687167 3641.922424 116808.130687 NaN
2026-01-25 38.363035 79.374670 189.794849 629.608869 3901.106689 165129.884600 NaN
2026-02-01 36.177655 75.299194 181.668474 612.722686 3947.972890 201711.131248 NaN